Thailand is on track to be removed from a US Treasury monitoring list, following an upcoming assessment of its economic data. The central bank’s assistant governor, Chayawadee Chai-anant, indicated that the US Treasury will evaluate Thailand’s economic performance from July 2025 to June 2026 for its next review. Projections suggest that Thailand will not meet the criteria for inclusion on the list during this period, paving the way for its removal in a report expected between late 2026 and early 2027.
Understanding the US Treasury’s Monitoring List
The US Treasury maintains a list to identify countries engaging in potentially unfair trade practices or currency manipulation. Economies are placed on this ‘Monitoring List’ if they meet specific criteria, which are assessed over a four-quarter period. For the report covering the four quarters through June 2025, twenty economies were placed on this list.
Key Criteria for Monitoring List Inclusion
Inclusion on the Monitoring List is based on three primary economic indicators:
- Significant Bilateral Trade Surplus with the US: A surplus of at least $15 billion.
- Material Current Account Surplus: A surplus equivalent to at least 3% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
- Persistent Foreign Exchange Intervention: Engaging in one-sided foreign exchange market intervention for at least eight out of twelve months, with net purchases totaling at least 2% of GDP.
Thailand’s Position in the Latest Review
In the most recent review, which covered the four quarters through June 2025, Thailand was found to meet only one of the three criteria: a significant bilateral trade surplus with the United States. This surplus reached $54 billion over the assessed period, more than double its level five years prior.
However, Thailand’s current account surplus fell short of the US Treasury’s threshold. While the surplus has shown gradual recovery since the pandemic, it stood at 2.8% of GDP for the period, below the 3% requirement. The report also noted that foreign exchange interventions by Thai authorities appeared to be aimed at stabilizing the currency rather than gaining a competitive advantage. The Bank of Thailand reported net foreign exchange purchases of $5 billion over the four quarters through June 2025, approximately 0.9% of GDP, which is considered a modest amount.
Ms. Chai-anant emphasized that the central bank does not engage in currency management with the intention of achieving an unfair competitive edge in exchange rates. The baht itself experienced significant appreciation against the US dollar during the review period, gaining 13.1%. This strengthening was attributed to Thailand’s economic recovery and a monetary easing cycle in the latter half of 2024.
Future Outlook and Potential Removal
The upcoming assessment period, from July 2025 to June 2026, is crucial for Thailand’s potential removal from the watchlist. Based on current economic trends and projections, the country is not expected to meet the criteria for continued monitoring. This includes maintaining a current account surplus below the 3% of GDP threshold and avoiding persistent, large-scale foreign exchange interventions.
The central bank’s proactive management of exchange rate volatility, coupled with the expected economic performance, positions Thailand favorably for delisting. The trade deficit in the second quarter of this year, totaling $12.1 billion, and a current account deficit of $17.1 billion in the same quarter, further indicate a shift away from the surplus conditions that trigger monitoring. Year-to-date figures also reflect these trends, with a trade deficit of $12.4 billion and a current account deficit of $16.3 billion.
The removal from the US Treasury’s Monitoring List would signify international confidence in Thailand’s economic policies and trade practices, potentially boosting foreign investment and trade relations.
